A full simulation of your plan in three stages: pass the eval, earn your first payout, then run the account as a payout machine up to the 5-payout cap. Set your win rates and watch live how many payouts an account is worth. The odds come from a Monte-Carlo of 25,000 simulated accounts.
01
Your assumptions
Win rates, the payouts 2-5 grind size, and your profit split drive everything. Account rules (drawdown, DLL, targets, 5-payout cap) are fixed to Lucid 25K Flex.
evalThe $400 recovery trade. Your only eval failure point.
fundedThe 1:1 trades in every funded cycle. Your funded edge.
2-5Static-floor cycles. Smaller = safer but slower; above $350 buys no speed.
payoutYour share of each $1,000 payout. You keep $900.
The eval purchase price per account. Set it when the deal price changes.
Total cost: $50.
02
The three stages
Each stage is read given you reached the previous one, so you see where accounts drop out and where the money is made.
1 Eval
--
pass the eval → funded
Two +$625 profit days. Only ever breaks on a lost $400 recovery trade.
2 First payout
--
reach payout 1 of funded
The funded climb to $27,000 (Plan A). Trailing floor, the biggest bust risk of the whole run.
3 Payouts 2-5
--
extra payouts after your first
Static floor, $300 grind. Once you cash out once, the machine keeps running up to the cap.
Expected payouts / account
--
per account bought
Expected value / account
--
take-home, net of cost
Across 1 accounts (net)
--
take-home minus $50
Avg campaign length
--
trading weeks, if funded
03
The exact playbook
The whole strategy in plain steps. Every trade below is a single position with a fixed risk and a fixed reward multiple (R). "2.5R" means a win pays 2.5x what you risked.
1 Pass the eval $25,000 → $26,250
Every day your goal is to make exactly +$625, no more.
Take a trade risking $250 at 2.5R. A win makes $625 and your day is done.
If it loses, take one more risking $350 at 2.5R (a win makes $875, so you still end the day at +$625).
If both lose you are down $600, the daily limit, so you stop. The next day, take one trade risking $400 at 1.5R to win $600 back to break-even, then try the day again.
Two winning days and you pass. The only thing that ends the run is a losing recovery trade.
2 Your first payout $25,000 → $27,000
Switch to safe 1R (1:1) trades and risk $500.
After a win take another; after a loss stop for the day. Keep going until you are up +$1,500 — now the drawdown locks just above break-even and the account is hard to lose.
Drop to $150 a day, one trade, then stop win or lose. Repeat until you have 5 winning days and +$2,000.
Withdraw $1,000. Your balance drops to $26,000 and you keep your profit split ($900).
3 Payouts 2 to 5 $26,000 → $27,000, repeat
The floor no longer moves, so play small and steady: $300 a day, one trade, then stop.
Each round you only need +$1,000 and 5 winning days — much easier than the first payout.
Withdraw $1,000, drop back to $26,000, and repeat — up to five payouts in total.
After the fifth payout the account goes live, which is beyond this plan.
04
How the eval works
The eval day-loop as a picture: a profit day of up to two trades, a recovery day when both miss, and two profit days to pass.
05
The road to your first payout
Stages 1 and 2 in detail. Each box shows the share of all purchased accounts that reach that point; the red branch below is where they drop out. The final box is your overall chance of a first payout.
Advances (reaches stage)Eval lost / account bust
06
How many payouts a funded account gives
Of accounts that pass the eval: the distribution of total payouts (0 to the 5-cap). Bar 0 = busted before ever cashing out.
total payouts before the account busts or hits the 5-cap →
07
What the model does and does not say
Stage 1, Eval: breaks in exactly one place, a losing $400 recovery trade. Both 2.5R trades missing just costs a recovery round-trip, not the account, so your 1.5R recovery rate matters most here.
Stage 2, First payout: the funded climb with Plan A. The trailing floor chases you here, so this is where most accounts bust. Cashing out once drops you to $26,000 and locks the floor at $25,100.
Stage 3, Payouts 2-5: the floor is now static, so give-back is no longer punished and small trades are safe. Each cycle needs only +$1,000 and 5 fresh winning days, up to the 5-payout cap.
The grind size is a speed-vs-safety dial. Smaller wins more total payouts but takes longer; above ~$350 you buy no speed, only busts. $300 is the knee of the curve.
Profit split scales only your take-home, not the account: you always withdraw $1,000, and keep that share of it.
This is probability math on your assumptions, not a promise. Real outcomes depend on execution, slippage, and the exact firm rules.
Monte-Carlo · 25,000 accounts
Model of your Lucid 25K Flex plan across all three stages. Figures recompute live.