FlowForge · Eval probability model

Eval Roadmap: will this eval pass?

An edge gets you funded, but bad sizing can still sink it. Enter your stats and 15,000 simulated evals reveal your real odds of passing, and the exact risk that gives you the best shot.

What are your prop firm rules?

Copy these straight from your evaluation: the account and its drawdown, plus the daily limits you have to stay inside.

Account rules

Start balance $

For reference only.

Profit target $

Reach this to pass.

Max drawdown $

Bust if you lose this much. 0 = none.

Trailing drawdown (EOD)

Follows your highest end-of-day balance and locks at start + $100. Off = static floor.

Daily structure (consistency)

Use the daily / consistency structure

Daily target $ · auto

Consistency % of the profit target. A win never exceeds this.

Daily loss limit $

0 = off.

Consistency % of profit

Max share per day. 0/100 = off.

Off: no daily target, you size straight to the eval target and trade until you reach it or bust.

What do you trade?

Your instrument and your average size set the commission, and that fee comes off every trade, win or loss, so it quietly eats into your edge.

Charged as

Instrument

Contracts avg per trade

Your rough average, it need not be the same every trade.

Your strategy

This tool runs one fixed R:R for the whole eval, it cannot mix different R:R per trade. Know your R:R and win rate? Set your win rate, enter your R and lock it, then hit Optimize strategy for the best risk. Not sure yet? Leave the defaults and hit Optimize to see the best R and risk these rules allow.

Start from no edge (breakeven)

Assume you are only as good as breakeven, so the odds come purely from the rules and your sizing. Turn this off and drag your win rate to add a real edge.

Reward R🔓

One reward-to-risk ratio for the whole eval. Lock it to keep it fixed while optimizing.

Win rate50%

The win rate at this R. The orange mark is breakeven.

Risk per trade🔓$300

Smaller risk = more trades, lower variance. Capped at your DLL (or drawdown).

At zero edge it holds the win rate at breakeven and searches R and risk per trade for the highest pass chance, given the DLL, drawdown and consistency. Commission included.

Your odds

Eval pass chance

reach the target without busting

Bust chance

hit the drawdown floor

Daily target hit rate

chance a day makes its target

Avg days to pass

for the runs that pass

Pass Bust

Best sizing at this R

Pass chance vs risk per trade

How to trade this

Pick one R:R and never break it. If your plan is 2R, every single trade risks the same amount and aims for twice it. A winner hits your target, a loser hits your stop, and the next trade looks exactly the same. No moving stops, no doubling down on a "sure thing", no switching to 1R here and 3R there.
Keep the same size until the rules force you smaller. You risk your set amount on every trade, right up until you get close to the daily loss limit or the drawdown. Then you take one smaller shot with the room that is left, and go back to your normal size once you have breathing room again.
This won't make you profitable. It sizes an edge you already have, it cannot create one. Without a real edge your odds stay near the break-even ceiling no matter how you size; a genuine win-rate edge is what pushes past it. Sizing just makes the most of whatever edge you have.
The numbers assume you actually do this. One R:R, one win rate, every trade. The moment you freestyle or change your size on a hunch, the odds stop applying. Fees beyond commission and slippage are not modelled.

Monte-Carlo · 15,000 evals A general eval calculator. Fill in your own account rules; figures recompute live.