FlowForge · Eval probability model

Eval Roadmap: will this eval pass?

A firm-agnostic evaluation calculator. Pick your reward, your win rate, and how many trades you want to spread your target over. Everything else, including your risk per trade, follows from that, and it runs 15,000 simulated evals to show your real chance of passing. The values below are just a starting preset, so enter your own eval's rules.

Set it up

Account rules

Start balance $

For reference only.

Profit target $

Reach this to pass.

Max drawdown $

Bust if you lose this much. 0 = none.

Trailing drawdown (EOD)

Follows your highest end-of-day balance and locks at start + $100. Off = static floor.

Commission

Charged as

Instrument

Contracts per trade

Daily structure (consistency)

Use the daily / consistency structure

Daily target $ · auto

Consistency % of the profit target. A win never exceeds this.

Daily loss limit $

0 = off.

Consistency % of profit

Max share per day. 0/100 = off.

Off: no daily target, you size straight to the eval target and trade until you reach it or bust.

Your strategy

Assume zero edge: hold the win rate at breakeven for each R

Reward R🔓

Reward-to-risk ratio. Lock to hold it fixed while optimizing.

Win rate50%

The win rate at this R. The orange mark is breakeven.

Risk per trade🔓$300

Smaller risk = more trades, lower variance. Capped at your DLL (or drawdown).

At zero edge it holds the win rate at breakeven and searches R and risk per trade for the highest pass chance, given the DLL, drawdown and consistency. Commission included.

The odds

Eval pass chance

reach the target without busting

Bust chance

hit the drawdown floor

Daily target hit rate

chance a day makes its target

Avg days to pass

for the runs that pass

Pass Bust Did not finish

Best sizing at this R

Pass chance vs risk per trade

How the model works

You pick R and your risk; the win rate follows. In zero-edge mode the win rate is held at breakeven (1 / (1 + R)) for whatever R you choose, so any difference in pass chance comes purely from how you size against the account rules, not from an edge.
Each trade aims to land on the daily target. Reward is the smaller of your normal reward and the distance left to the daily target, and risk is reward / R. Near the target the trade shrinks so a win lands exactly on it; after a loss it scales back up, then returns to your normal risk once there is room.
Two floors bound it. The daily loss limit caps a single day: if the next trade does not fit the room that is left, the day ends. The max drawdown is an end-of-day trailing floor that locks once it reaches start plus the lock amount; near it the trade shrinks to the room left, a win survives and a loss busts.
Commission is taken off every trade, win or loss. This is probability math on your assumptions, not a prediction; slippage and other fees are not modeled.

Monte-Carlo · 15,000 evals A general eval calculator. Fill in your own account rules; figures recompute live.